Poisson model

The Poisson model, as a variation of the original Dixon & Coles model, was the first model I implemented and used to predict the outcome of football matches. I submitted picks based on this model during Feburary 2017 and May 2018.

Following pictures shows the profit line:

Poisson model profit (Feb 2017 – May 2018)

The model showed just a very small profit of 14.4 units during this time. Based on the backtest of the model I expected a yield between 6% and 7%. But as the productive usage showed, the model suffers some disadvantages, which indicate that the model is not able to beat the bookie in long term.


In following blog posts I analysed the submitted picks and tried to look behind the results and spot the weaknesses of the Poisson model:



If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment or contact me @Mo_Nbg.