With Euro 2024 in full swing and all the football leagues concluded, it’s the perfect time to look back at the past season. This period of reflection is crucial for any serious bettor. Understanding what went well, identifying areas for improvement, and strategizing for the future are key steps to long-term success. The 2023/2024 season was filled with exciting matches, unexpected results, and valuable lessons. In this recap, I’ll break down the performance of my betting strategy, highlight the successes, pinpoint the failures, and discuss the changes I plan to implement for the upcoming season. Let’s dive into the detailed analysis and insights that will shape my approach moving forward.
Theoretical Performance
The theoretical performance of my betting strategy is based on extensive backtesting using data directly from the BeatTheBookie app. This app has been invaluable in tracking and analyzing my bets. For a consistent comparison, both theoretical and practical stakes were standardized to a flat stake of €1 per bet. I analyzed two distinct scenarios: including and excluding the Italian Serie A. Here’s why: I stopped betting on Serie A halfway through the season due to significant losses that skewed my overall results.
- With Serie A: The theoretical profit showed a yield of 1% over 3660 bets, with average odds of 4.06. While a positive yield, it’s not substantial enough to justify the risk involved. The data from BeatTheBookie highlighted that the model performance in Serie A was consistently poor, leading to an overall drag on my profitability.
- Without Serie A: Removing Serie A from the equation increased the theoretical profit to a yield of 2.33%. This indicates that Serie A was a significant drag on overall performance. The app’s data clearly showed an improvement in profitability when Serie A bets were excluded, reaffirming my decision to stop betting on this league.
Real-Life Results
In real-life betting, I placed 2450 bets, resulting in an average profit of -1.94%. The average odds for these bets were 3.19. This negative outcome was primarily due to modifications I made to the bets suggested by my ensemble model. I altered the original suggestions, opting for Asian Handicaps to cover outcomes like home wins and draws. This strategy was intended to lower the average odds and reduce variance, but it ultimately impacted my overall profitability negatively.
What Went Well?
Draw Bets: These were extremely successful. Out of 567 bets, I achieved a profit of 15.41%. The theoretical profit looks even better; with 1300 bets, the yield was 14.6%. This indicates that my model is generally on the right track since draws are the hardest to predict.
Cashout Strategy: In my previous blog post, I discussed using cashouts to secure bets, mainly for underdog bets. I used line movements prematch or when the underdog took the lead.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: By the end of the season, I had predictions for the Over/Under market using the Vanilla xG model. This showed good performance for Serie A, so I implemented it. With just over 50 bets, both markets showed positive results, which is promising.
What Went Wrong?
I still struggle to translate theoretical profit into real betting outcomes. This issue is likely due to the use of Asian Handicap bets, though I can’t definitively prove it yet.
Changes for the Next Season
The BeatTheBookie app has been updated to save my predictions along with market odds. This will offer new opportunities for the upcoming season:
- Odds Comparison: Comparing my odds to closing odds of my backtests.
- Evaluating Asian Handicap Bets: Determining if Asian Handicap bets are truly disadvantageous.
By reflecting on these insights and making strategic adjustments, I hope to improve my betting performance in the next season. Stay tuned for more updates and happy betting!
If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment, contact me @Mo_Nbg or join the Discord Server.
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