After I realized my available data is definitely not enough to beat the bookie, I decided to start a new data journey and take a look at some more advanced statistics. And what could be better suited as Expected Goals (xG). This statistic is used more and more to explain this specific luck / bad luck factor, you feel, when watching a football match. In the first part of this journey I will explain, what are xG and what they tell you about a football match. Continue reading “xG data journey – What are ExpectedGoals?”
Before the new season will start I should take a look at the last season. Everybody following my pick history already knows: the last season again was very disappointing! But I again have to point out, that I of course did not expect to find the “holy grail” after just two seasons of model testing. So how bad do the numbers really look, and what are the most important “lesson learned” are….
This time, after over 20 matchdays in the German Bundesliga, I don’t want to take a look at the predicted results. I used my Team Strength MLP now for about 6 months. During this time I analysed the predictions and tried to learn some more stuff about deep learning. So let’s summarize some lessons I have already learned and what could be improved for my model for the next season.
With beginning of the new season in the Bundesliga I started to use my new predictive model “Team Strength MLP“. This model is no longer a statistical model like the Poisson model from last season. It is trained neural network. After the first 10 matchdays it is time to check the current result of my betting history.
I regular listen the Business of Betting Podcast, when driving to work. There I stumbled over a episode, where a experiment with a 60/40 coin was discussed. People were provided a modified coin, which shows head with a probability of 60%. Knowing this fact they should choose a stake, which they think maximizes their profit, and flip the coin 100 times. The result of this experiment was really surprising: Despite a positive edge many people gone busted. But why did this happen?
The Bundesliga season 2017/18 has taken a dramatic end. The last never-relegated founding member Hamburger SV is on its way to the 2nd division. I am really happy about this, as there will be two thrilling derbies next season and St. Pauli will be able to defend there derby title.
But the end of this season does also mean something else: I am now using the Poisson model for one year in a productive way by populating picks, betting with some mini stacks and analysing the results. So it is time to do a retrospective and sum up all the experiences and all weaknesses discovered.
Some days ago I read an interesting article about how bookies arrange their margin to the possible outcomes. All bookies keep this of course secret as this offers them a specific range, where they can shorten or lengthen the odds depended on the amounts of placed bets. But I need this information, because I simulate my prediction models for back and lay markets, with just the odds of the back markets. This post will explain, how you should calculate the bookie margin, and how you should not do it. I handled this topic a little bit naively during the development of my Poisson model, which causes some problems.
The next 10 matchday are played in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich are (again) already champions and the relegation of the last never-relegated member HSV comes closer. It is time to take a look at the performance of my Poisson model since start of 2018.
The next 10 match days are played in the German Bundesliga and so it is time for the next summary of the current betting history of my Poisson prediction model. During my summary about the first 10 match days I faced a really big loss. This trend continued also for the next match days, but some interesting observations can be made.
After 10 games played in the German Bundesliga, it is a good time to draw a small summary about the current stats of the betting history. If you follow my blog, you should know, I publish every pick at Pyckio. Until now I only publish the picks of the Poisson model. I am still investigating new prediction models.