Ensemble modeling for football predictions – Is one model enough?

The intention of this blog post, was a bit different at the beginning. At first I wanted to improve my existing ML Poisson model by adding the team market values as additional features. But as I worked on the topic, one question came more and more to the fore: Is one single model enough to BeatTheBookie?

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Implement Model: Poisson distribution

In theĀ last post the prototype of the Poisson prediction model has proven, that the optimised model is suitable to beat the bookie – at least for the German Bundesliga. The next step in the predictive model development process consists of implementing the model for forecasting the current fixtures. Regarding this model this part is very easy, as you need not to implement a trained model, just the prediction logic.

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