The next 10 matchday are played in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich are (again) already champions and the relegation of the last never-relegated member HSV comes closer. It is time to take a look at the performance of my Poisson model since start of 2018.
During the last analysis I already showed, that the model performed better since the end of 2017. This trend continued in 2018. The Pyckio history shows a profit in every month of 2018, in total 69,3 units. On the other hand there is a loss of -117,7 units accumulated during the first half of the season. So there is currently still an overall loss of -48,4 units.
But as good as the current trend looks, you have to be aware, what is the reason for such a performance turnover since the beginning of the season and what causes the profit. The most significant profit in 2018 was made with only 2 matches in march, when Red Bull Leipzig was able to beat Bayern Munich and Cologne was the winner against Leverkusen. Both matches provided a profit of 63,9 units.
There are two possible ways to interpret such results. On the one hand winning such long odds is of course lucky. A odd of 6,82 is equivalent to a probability of about 15%. Winning 2 such bets on one day is more than unusual. But on the other hand, if your are sure, that your predictive model correctly identifies value, you just use the calculated probabilities for your advantage. A value bet wins you more money than what you lose as the realistic probability is higher the the prob represented by the odds. In relation to such long odds, this of course means, that you will lose a lot of bets before a single one wins. This is something, which you need to also keep in mind, when calculating the overall bank. The current average odds of my Pyckio history is 2.94. This means, that just little bit more than every third bet needs to win, to gain profit.
With 4 more matchdays to play, I am excited to see how the current season will finish. If the current trend continues, I will at least end with a positiv overall yield. If I am lucky again, another big hit will help to end also this season with a profit.
If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment or contact me @Mo_Nbg.
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