The 2023/24 season has come to an end. This was the first season in which I used my ML Poisson Model and documented the betting results in multiple posts. So let’s take a look at how the overall result of the season turned out.
Overall result
Overall, the season started off really bad. In January, I adjusted my strategy by ceasing to bet on Ligue 1 matches. Additionally, I added some minor leagues to my portfolio. These changes immediately had a positive effect, as the trend changed and I finished the season just with a small loss of 0.36%.
Despite adapting the strategy halfway through the season, the French 1st division still had a significant impact on the overall profit. If we exclude these bets, the result is a profit of 2.04%.
This is also evident in the historical performance of Ligue 1. Overall, the ML Poisson model shows a positive profit at the end, but this was solely due to an upward trend towards the end of the season. Would I have achieved better results if I had continued betting on Ligue 1 matches? That’s a question I am now of course unable to answer.
Performance vs reality
The French League more or less followed the simulated performance of the model until I stopped betting on those matches. But how did the other divisions fare? The Spanish LaLiga and the English Championship are good examples of divisions that aligned with the model’s performance. The model indicated an average profit of around 7% for LaLiga, while the actual profit reached 10%.
However, this is not the case for every division. The Premier League was always the league with the best performance in the simulation, but reality proved to be quite different. A simulated profit of 17% contrasts sharply with a negative betting history of -8.3%. That’s a significant difference.
Conclusions
To draw some conclusions, it’s important to understand the differences between my simulations and my real-life betting. My simulations were all based on 1×2 markets, but I did not solely bet on 1×2 markets throughout the season. Particularly for longer odds, I utilized Asian Handicap bets to lower the average played odds and reduce variance. However, the results from the past season indicate that having an edge in the 1×2 market does not always translate to an edge in the AH markets. Therefore, one goal for the new season should be to obtain historic Asian Handicap odds to simulate these markets as well.
If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment or contact me @Mo_Nbg.
Beat the Bookie 