As the football season reaches its midway point, it’s time to take a step back and reflect on the highs and lows of my betting journey. In this blog post, I’ll share my real-life experiences, insights, and lessons learned from the first half of the season. Join me as I navigate the unpredictable world of football betting and explore the strategies that have shaped my approach.
Betting Results
In early October, I encountered some unexpected setbacks when my real-life betting outcomes deviated from the theoretical predictions of my Ensemble model. The detailed analysis and adjustments I made to my betting approach can be revisited in the following blog post, available at this link.
As of now, I am grappling with a loss of approximately -1.5% after a total of 1373 bets. The majority of this loss stems from the period before October. Since implementing adjustments to my betting strategy, the overall scenario has become notably more stable. The ongoing profit trajectory reflects a lateral movement with occasional fluctuations.
The same pattern is evident in the betting simulation, which is slightly less favorable. Consequently, I can infer that my adaptations were appropriate, and I am currently aligning with the anticipated trend of the model. With this, I can conclude that everything is operating as expected.
Betting the Draw
Therefore, I can allocate some time to conduct other analyses. The performance dashboard in the BeatTheBookie app consistently proves valuable for examining the Ensemble model’s performance from various angles. In my recent exploration, I uncovered an intriguing insight: the betting simulation for the current year demonstrates an impressive yield of 16.9% with 557 bets when exclusively wagering on the Draw.
Upon reviewing my betting history, I noticed that I didn’t place a significant number of Draw bets, as I also incorporated Asian Handicap bets when there was value on the Draw or the Away/Home team. Nevertheless, even with just 224 Draw bets, there is a remarkable profit of 22.08%. This outcome is particularly surprising since predicting the Draw in football is widely considered the most challenging. Could it be that I’ve unintentionally crafted a Bet-The-Draw-Machine?
Examining the entire history since 2018, the Ensemble model reveals a lower profit margin of 5.5% over 7446 bets. This figure is undoubtedly lower than the current season’s remarkable performance.
The model performance per season suggests that the current season is an exception. The current season notably outperforms in predicting Draws compared to other seasons, which exhibit a lower average profit. However, it’s worth noting that the profit remains consistently stable throughout the season, which is reassuring. Therefore, if you have access to a bookie with a margin lower than, for instance, 3%, the BeatTheBookie app proves to be valuable in predicting Draws.
Discover the power of the Ensemble Model and experience the intuitive interface of the BeatTheBookie app. By applying refined strategies and leveraging quality insights, you can elevate your betting experience.
Ready to Get Started? Click the Link to Request Access: How to subscribe?
Beat the Bookie 