As the current football season comes to a close, we find some leagues still brimming with excitement while champions have already been crowned in others. It’s the perfect time to look ahead to the upcoming season and introduce some exciting updates to my BeatTheBookie data service and app.
New Data Sources
Starting next season, I will incorporate data from Fbref.com. This source provides Opta data and covers more leagues than I have previously included. In an older blog post, Comparing the Predictive Power of Different xG Data Providers, I compared various data providers. By using Fbref data for multiple leagues, I hope to enhance the accuracy of my predictions even further.
New Leagues
More bets per day mean less variance per day and a more consistent yield. Therefore, I will offer historical data and predictions for additional leagues, including MLS, the Argentine Primera División, the Belgian First Division A, and the French and Italian second divisions.
Over/Under 2.5 Market
To provide even more betting opportunities, I will introduce predictions and historical data for the Over/Under 2.5 goals market starting next season. This will apply to all leagues for which I have historical bookmaker odds.
More Long-term and Short-term Models
My models, which use exponential moving averages for features, have so far been limited to a few time frames. For example, the ML Poisson model currently only uses data from the last 5 games. I will extend this to cover the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 games for both the Vanilla xG Poisson and the ML Poisson models. I believe this will enhance the predictive power of my ensemble model, which is used in the BeatTheBookie app.
Some of these changes are already available. For instance, the Vanilla xG model now includes predictions for the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. All updates are planned go live by early July 2024.
If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment, contact me @Mo_Nbg or join the Discord Server.
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