Betting – Beat the Bookie

Sep 3, 2024

Welcome season 2024/25 – taking a look at the new Ensemble model

As the new season kicks off, I’m thrilled to unveil the latest updates to my prediction models, designed to give you an even sharper edge in football betting. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or a passionate hobbyist, my goal is to help you make smarter, data-driven decisions. This season, I’ve made significant enhancements to the Ensemble model, introducing more sophisticated features and expanding market coverage. Let’s dive into the key improvements and see how they can boost your betting strategy for the upcoming matches.

Jun 18, 2024

Reflecting on the 2023/2024 Football Betting Season: Insights, Challenges, and Future Strategies

With Euro 2024 in full swing and all the football leagues concluded, it’s the perfect time to look back at the past season. This period of reflection is crucial for any serious bettor. Understanding what went well, identifying areas for improvement, and strategizing for the future are key steps to long-term success. The 2023/2024 season was filled with exciting matches, unexpected results, and valuable lessons. In this recap, I’ll break down the performance of my betting strategy, highlight the successes, pinpoint the failures, and discuss the changes I plan to implement for the upcoming season. Let’s dive into the detailed analysis and insights that will shape my approach moving forward.

Jun 14, 2024Jun 14, 2024

To cashout or not to cashout, that’s the question

In the realm of sports betting, one strategy has gained significant traction among bettors: the cash out option. But what exactly is a cash out, and is it worth using? Essentially, cashing out allows bettors to settle their bets before the event concludes, securing a return that might be smaller than the potential win but offers guaranteed profit or minimizes losses. Let’s delve deeper into how cash out works and whether it’s a beneficial strategy.

Jan 7, 2024Jan 8, 2024

Season 2023/24 – Did I create a Bet-The-Draw-Machine?

As the football season reaches its midway point, it’s time to take a step back and reflect on the highs and lows of my betting journey. In this blog post, I’ll share my real-life experiences, insights, and lessons learned from the first half of the season. Join me as I navigate the unpredictable world of football betting and explore the strategies that have shaped my approach.

Oct 27, 2023

Season 2023/24 – Comparing my Mollybet bets with my Ensemble model

Just like every season, I am excited to share my experiences with using different betting models. This year, I have been particularly focused on my ensemble model, which incorporates a diverse range of data and algorithms. Over the first three months of the season, I placed numerous bets, and now I want to take a closer look at the outcomes. I aim to share my insights and analyses regarding these bets. Let’s delve into the realm of sports betting together and explore what we can learn from these initial months.

Aug 26, 2023Oct 2, 2023

Inside the BeatTheBookie App – Predicting football matches with an Ensemble model

Not only is it the core feature of the BeatTheBookie app, but it’s also the primary reason why I started developing the app. However, why is this the case, and how does this type of predictive model work for predicting the outcomes of football matches? Let’s delve into it.

Jul 19, 2023Jul 25, 2023

BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble performance

In this blog post, we will explore the performance dashboard for the BeatTheBookie App’s ensemble model. This powerful predictive model combines the expertise of multiple individual models to forecast football match outcomes. By leveraging insights from the performance dashboard, we can make informed betting decisions and increase our chances of success. Let’s dive into the details of this game-changing feature.

Apr 9, 2023

Season 2022/23 – The Ligue 1 Disaster

Welcome to my latest blog post, titled “The Ligue 1 Disaster.” As a passionate sports bettor, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the results of my latest betting history over the past month, and one league that has left me utterly disappointed is Ligue 1. Known for its exciting matches and talented players, the French top-tier football league has seen unexpected twists and turns that have turned my betting predictions upside down. In this post, I’ll delve into the recent woes I’ve experienced with my bets on Ligue 1 and analyze the factors that have contributed to what can only be described as a disaster. Join me as I reflect on the surprising outcomes, unforeseen upsets, and the rollercoaster ride of emotions that have made Ligue 1 a source of frustration in my recent betting endeavors.

Feb 25, 2023Mar 29, 2023

Ensemble modeling for football predictions – Is one model enough?

The intention of this blog post, was a bit different at the beginning. At first I wanted to improve my existing ML Poisson model by adding the team market values as additional features. But as I worked on the topic, one question came more and more to the fore: Is one single model enough to BeatTheBookie?

Dec 1, 2022

Season 2022/23 – A turning point (in theory)

This will be the 2nd blog about my betting performance in the season 2022/23 using my ML Poisson model. The beginning of the season was a sobering one. My theoraticaly worst model performed the best and the ML Poisson model, which I am using for betting showed a really bad profit. So let’s have a look, how things changed in the 2nd part of the first season half.