Season 2022/23 – The Ligue 1 Disaster

Welcome to my latest blog post, titled “The Ligue 1 Disaster.” As a passionate sports bettor, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the results of my latest betting history over the past month, and one league that has left me utterly disappointed is Ligue 1. Known for its exciting matches and talented players, the French top-tier football league has seen unexpected twists and turns that have turned my betting predictions upside down. In this post, I’ll delve into the recent woes I’ve experienced with my bets on Ligue 1 and analyze the factors that have contributed to what can only be described as a disaster. Join me as I reflect on the surprising outcomes, unforeseen upsets, and the rollercoaster ride of emotions that have made Ligue 1 a source of frustration in my recent betting endeavors.

When examining the overall betting performance, the numbers don’t lie. Since the start of the season, I’ve faced an average loss of 1.32% based on a total of 1172 bets. However, there were moments of hope amidst the disappointment. In February, I saw a great profit that briefly turned the overall results positive. But unfortunately March was not so kind and the ups and downs continued.
One notable change in my betting strategy was the addition of multiple smaller leagues, including Eredivisie, 2. Bundesliga, Championship, and Portugal Primeira Liga. For these leagues, I decided to use the tried-and-true ZIP model. This increased my average number of bets. As any experienced bettor knows, adjusting and experimenting with different models and strategies is part of the journey. However, the results from March have not been as favorable as I had hoped, and it’s time to dig deeper into the challenges that Ligue 1 and other leagues have presented in recent times. So, let’s dive into the numbers, analyze the trends, and uncover the reasons behind the “Ligue 1 Disaster.”

With a staggering loss of -63.69, the average yield for Ligue 1 is nearly -30%. This stands in stark contrast to the performance in other divisions, where profits may be more modest or even positive. The magnitude of the loss in Ligue 1 has been a standout disappointment in my recent betting history, and it’s crucial to delve deeper into the factors that have contributed to this substantial setback.

Profit per division

As I delved deeper into the performance of my betting models, particularly the ML Poisson model, a revealing trend emerged. While my various models, including the ML Poisson, had shown profits in the past, upon closer examination, it became evident that these profits were primarily concentrated in just two seasons. This was something I had not previously recognized.

Upon further analysis, it became apparent that the last and current season in Ligue 1 did not align with the success of the ML Poisson model. The disappointing results from these seasons seemed to indicate that the ML Poisson model may not be as suitable for predicting outcomes in Ligue 1 as it had been in the past.

This realization was a significant revelation, and it prompted me to reevaluate my approach to betting on Ligue 1 matches. It’s clear that adjustments need to be made to address the changing dynamics of the league and potentially explore alternative models or strategies.

Excluding Ligue 1 from my betting history reveals a significantly more positive picture. With an average yield of 1.76%, I would have been able to achieve a profit of 33.22 units. This success would provide a solid foundation upon which to build future improvements in my betting strategy.

This encouraging outcome has motivated me to further refine my approach, explore alternative models or strategies, and identify other leagues that may offer better opportunities for profitable betting. Join me as I embark on this journey to bounce back from the “Ligue 1 Disaster” and make strategic adjustments for a more successful betting future.

If you have further questions, feel free to leave a comment or contact me @Mo_Nbg.

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