The first model I tested is based on the predictive models of Maher [1] and Dixon / Coles [2]. Maher modelled the expected goals for a specific match as two independent Poisson distributions. After that, Dixon / Coles improved this model to balance some disadvantages.
In the previous post I described, how you can easily calculate the features of these models for any football match in the past. The first part of this post will show you, how to calculate the odds with the help of these features and why a simple Poisson distribution is not enough to beat the bookie. How I solved these problems will be the central element of the second part.
Continue reading “Validate model: Poisson distribution (part 1)”
Beat the Bookie 