Gather data: football-data.co.uk

When I started this project, my biggest problem was to find a source for historic football statistics and historic football odds. Fortunately, I found Joseph Buchdahl’s website football-data.co.uk. This website is just great! He offers CSV files for 22 football leagues and about 19 seasons. He updates the data mostly two times a week. So I used this data as the starting point for my analytical system.

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Analytical Architecture: TripleA DWH

As described in How to beat the bookie: Value Betting I want to use Value Betting to beat the bookie. To identify value, I have to be able to calculate the probability of a specific sports event (e.g. Home-Win for Team A) as accurately as possible. Therefore, I want to develop, test, simulate and process different predictive models.  As a DWH architect I know, that a good system architecture helps a lot to support such a developing process. That’s why I formed the concept of the TripleA DWH – the Advanced Agile Analytical Data Warehouse.

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How to beat the bookie: Value Betting

There are many ways to beat a bookie. One of the well known methods is arbitrage betting, where you try to find price differences between different bookies. Some years ago this was a really good method, but today, as every single information about sports is available throw the internet, it is hard to find difference between bookies.

I will mainly focus on the so-called Value Betting. But what is Value Betting and how does it work?

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