In the realm of sports betting, one strategy has gained significant traction among bettors: the cash out option. But what exactly is a cash out, and is it worth using? Essentially, cashing out allows bettors to settle their bets before the event concludes, securing a return that might be smaller than the potential win but offers guaranteed profit or minimizes losses. Let’s delve deeper into how cash out works and whether it’s a beneficial strategy.
Continue reading “To cashout or not to cashout, that’s the question”Inside the BeatTheBookie App – Predicting football matches with an Ensemble model
Not only is it the core feature of the BeatTheBookie app, but it’s also the primary reason why I started developing the app. However, why is this the case, and how does this type of predictive model work for predicting the outcomes of football matches? Let’s delve into it.
Continue reading “Inside the BeatTheBookie App – Predicting football matches with an Ensemble model”BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble performance
In this blog post, we will explore the performance dashboard for the BeatTheBookie App’s ensemble model. This powerful predictive model combines the expertise of multiple individual models to forecast football match outcomes. By leveraging insights from the performance dashboard, we can make informed betting decisions and increase our chances of success. Let’s dive into the details of this game-changing feature.
Continue reading “BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble performance”Season 2023/24 – A reconciliatory ending
The 2023/24 season has come to an end. This was the first season in which I used my ML Poisson Model and documented the betting results in multiple posts. So let’s take a look at how the overall result of the season turned out.
Continue reading “Season 2023/24 – A reconciliatory ending”BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble predictions
The BeatTheBookie App is a web data app that provides me with predictions for my daily betting. However, there has always been something that bothered me a bit: the comparison to the odds of a bookie. Each bookie uses a different margin, making it difficult to identify value and determine the amount of value a bet offers. Fortunately, this issue is addressed with the introduction of the Ensemble predictions dashboard.
Continue reading “BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble predictions”BeatTheBookieApp – Model performance
The BeatTheBookie App is a web-based data application that grants me access to predictions generated by various models that have proven their performance over time on my blog. However, determining which model to utilize for a specific match can be challenging. Thankfully, the model performance dashboard offers the solution to this dilemma. By exploring the dashboard, I gain valuable insights into the theoretical performance of the different models in past scenarios. This information aids me in selecting the most suitable model for each match, increasing the chances of making informed betting decisions.
Continue reading “BeatTheBookieApp – Model performance”BeatTheBookieApp – Model predictions
The BeatTheBookie App is a web data app that provides me with predictions for all models that have demonstrated their performance throughout the history of my blog. As it has already been proven, there is no single best model for all divisions. Therefore, I wanted to be able to compare predictions, as each model takes into account different aspects of past performance. The result is the model predictions dashboard.
Continue reading “BeatTheBookieApp – Model predictions”Season 2022/23 – The Ligue 1 Disaster
Welcome to my latest blog post, titled “The Ligue 1 Disaster.” As a passionate sports bettor, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the results of my latest betting history over the past month, and one league that has left me utterly disappointed is Ligue 1. Known for its exciting matches and talented players, the French top-tier football league has seen unexpected twists and turns that have turned my betting predictions upside down. In this post, I’ll delve into the recent woes I’ve experienced with my bets on Ligue 1 and analyze the factors that have contributed to what can only be described as a disaster. Join me as I reflect on the surprising outcomes, unforeseen upsets, and the rollercoaster ride of emotions that have made Ligue 1 a source of frustration in my recent betting endeavors.
Continue reading “Season 2022/23 – The Ligue 1 Disaster”Ensemble modeling for football predictions – Is one model enough?
The intention of this blog post, was a bit different at the beginning. At first I wanted to improve my existing ML Poisson model by adding the team market values as additional features. But as I worked on the topic, one question came more and more to the fore: Is one single model enough to BeatTheBookie?
Continue reading “Ensemble modeling for football predictions – Is one model enough?”ZIP model performance incl. minor leagues
Some days ago I extended my ZIP Poisson model by some additional leagues. These are: Championship, Seria B, La Liga 2, Eredivise, Liga Portugal. It’s always helpful to be able to select more possible bets. Playing more bets reduces the variance of your hit rate and provides a more stable average profit. So let’s have a look, how the ZIP Poisson model performs including the new leagues.
Continue reading “ZIP model performance incl. minor leagues”
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