The BeatTheBookie data service was created with the goal of sharing my data for free, allowing anyone to dive in and explore without the hassle of dealing with data integration from multiple sources. Recently, I made some updates and adjustments to the service based on user feedback, with the primary aim of enhancing the overall user experience. In this post, I’ll walk you through these improvements and show you how you can easily consume data from the BeatTheBookie data service with a few examples.
To cashout or not to cashout, that’s the question
In the realm of sports betting, one strategy has gained significant traction among bettors: the cash out option. But what exactly is a cash out, and is it worth using? Essentially, cashing out allows bettors to settle their bets before the event concludes, securing a return that might be smaller than the potential win but offers guaranteed profit or minimizes losses. Let’s delve deeper into how cash out works and whether it’s a beneficial strategy.
Continue reading “To cashout or not to cashout, that’s the question”Betting with numbers – How I select my bets
Of course I don’t write all these blogs and create the different models just for fun. Of course I am using my data and my models for betting. So I thought, it would be a good idea to explain my process of selecting bets based on my predictions.
Continue reading “Betting with numbers – How I select my bets”Scoring functions vs. betting profit – Measuring the performance of a football betting model
“What’s the best model?” – That’s a very important questions, when creating, training and testing new predictive models for football. Various machine learning algorithms and packages offer by default a set of scoring functions like accuracy, log-loss, brier score or ROC-AUC, which measure the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction. But I already recognized in older posts, that the best model based on a scoring function, was not always the best model, when it’s about using the prediction results for betting. So let’s have a look and compare the rank of some scoring functions in comparison to the betting profit of some models.
Continue reading “Scoring functions vs. betting profit – Measuring the performance of a football betting model”From Business Analytics to Sports Analytics
Before I started analyzing data for sports betting I have worked as a Business Intelligence (BI) consultant in different industries. During this time I learned how Business Analytics helps you to improve your business performance by analyzing data. This also helped me to understand, what’s needed to improve the performance of a sports team or the betting performance of a punter with the help of data.
Continue reading “From Business Analytics to Sports Analytics”Article at DOAG Business News
Everyone, who follows my blog, will have noticed, that I did not published any post for a long time. This was because I first could publish my first article for the DOAG Business News and after that had two presentations at the DOAG conference.
How To: Install TensorFlow for Windows
I currently started to test machine learning algorithms to predict the results of football matches. I especially tried to use neural networks. But I soon realized, that the possibilities of R regarding neural networks are a little bit limited. So I want to take a look at TensorFlow. TensorFlow is a machine learning library provided by Google, which was already used for many different use-cases and proved its suitability.
As the installation process for TensorFlow was not self-explanatory, I thought, it would be a good idea to provide a small installation guide. I want to explain, how I installed TensorFlow and the Python GUI PyCharm.
How To: Develop predictive models
No matter what predictive model you want to build, you have to go through several steps. You find many different approaches to describe such a development process for statistical models or predictive models in the internet. I have chosen a relative simple one, which is based on papers for a SAS training.
Analytical Architecture: TripleA DWH
As described in How to beat the bookie: Value Betting I want to use Value Betting to beat the bookie. To identify value, I have to be able to calculate the probability of a specific sports event (e.g. Home-Win for Team A) as accurately as possible. Therefor, I have to develop, test, simulate and process different predictive models. As a DWH architect I know, that a good data architecture helps a lot to support such a developing process. That’s why I formed the concept of the TripleA DWH – the Advanced Agile Analytical Data Warehouse – a data architecture aimed to automate data science processes.
How to: convert betting odds
While learning something about sports betting, it is essential to compile betting odds to probabilities and probabilities to betting odds.
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