Beat the Bookie

Jul 19, 2023Jul 25, 2023

BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble performance

In this blog post, we will explore the performance dashboard for the BeatTheBookie App’s ensemble model. This powerful predictive model combines the expertise of multiple individual models to forecast football match outcomes. By leveraging insights from the performance dashboard, we can make informed betting decisions and increase our chances of success. Let’s dive into the details of this game-changing feature.

Jul 1, 2023Jul 25, 2023

Season 2023/24 – A reconciliatory ending

The 2023/24 season has come to an end. This was the first season in which I used my ML Poisson Model and documented the betting results in multiple posts. So let’s take a look at how the overall result of the season turned out.

Jun 6, 2023

BeatTheBookieApp – Ensemble predictions

The BeatTheBookie App is a web data app that provides me with predictions for my daily betting. However, there has always been something that bothered me a bit: the comparison to the odds of a bookie. Each bookie uses a different margin, making it difficult to identify value and determine the amount of value a bet offers. Fortunately, this issue is addressed with the introduction of the Ensemble predictions dashboard.

May 25, 2023

BeatTheBookieApp – Model performance

The BeatTheBookie App is a web-based data application that grants me access to predictions generated by various models that have proven their performance over time on my blog. However, determining which model to utilize for a specific match can be challenging. Thankfully, the model performance dashboard offers the solution to this dilemma. By exploring the dashboard, I gain valuable insights into the theoretical performance of the different models in past scenarios. This information aids me in selecting the most suitable model for each match, increasing the chances of making informed betting decisions.

May 23, 2023

BeatTheBookieApp – Model predictions

The BeatTheBookie App is a web data app that provides me with predictions for all models that have demonstrated their performance throughout the history of my blog. As it has already been proven, there is no single best model for all divisions. Therefore, I wanted to be able to compare predictions, as each model takes into account different aspects of past performance. The result is the model predictions dashboard.

Apr 18, 2023

Matching Team Names in Sports Betting Data: A Fuzzy Matching Approach

As a data engineer with a focus on predictive modeling for sports betting, one of the key challenges is matching team names from different data sources. In this blog post, we will explore how to use fuzzy matching to match team names from different sources and discuss an example implementation in Python. Additionally, we will introduce a new endpoint from BeatTheBookieDataService that provides a comprehensive matching of team names.

Apr 9, 2023

Season 2022/23 – The Ligue 1 Disaster

Welcome to my latest blog post, titled “The Ligue 1 Disaster.” As a passionate sports bettor, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the results of my latest betting history over the past month, and one league that has left me utterly disappointed is Ligue 1. Known for its exciting matches and talented players, the French top-tier football league has seen unexpected twists and turns that have turned my betting predictions upside down. In this post, I’ll delve into the recent woes I’ve experienced with my bets on Ligue 1 and analyze the factors that have contributed to what can only be described as a disaster. Join me as I reflect on the surprising outcomes, unforeseen upsets, and the rollercoaster ride of emotions that have made Ligue 1 a source of frustration in my recent betting endeavors.

Feb 25, 2023Mar 29, 2023

Ensemble modeling for football predictions – Is one model enough?

The intention of this blog post, was a bit different at the beginning. At first I wanted to improve my existing ML Poisson model by adding the team market values as additional features. But as I worked on the topic, one question came more and more to the fore: Is one single model enough to BeatTheBookie?

Dec 25, 2022

Vanilla Poisson performance incl. minor leagues

As already done for the ZIP Poisson model, I also added some smaller leagues data to my Vanilla Poisson model: Championship, Seria B, La Liga 2, Eredivise, Liga Portugal. All these additional leagues are already available through my data service. So it’s time to take a look how profitable these new leagues are using the Vanilly Poisson model.

Dec 1, 2022

Season 2022/23 – A turning point (in theory)

This will be the 2nd blog about my betting performance in the season 2022/23 using my ML Poisson model. The beginning of the season was a sobering one. My theoraticaly worst model performed the best and the ML Poisson model, which I am using for betting showed a really bad profit. So let’s have a look, how things changed in the 2nd part of the first season half.